Oil rises ahead of US elections and as Europe locks down

Oil prices gained nearly 3 percent on Monday, paring earlier losses, on the eve of what is almost certain to be a contentious presidential election in the United States and as major economies in Europe go back into lockdown in an effort to stem rising coronavirus infections.

Global benchmark Brent crude for January delivery rose $1.03 or 2.7 percent to settle at $38.97 a barrel on Monday, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for December delivery rose $1.02 or nearly 3 percent to settle at $36.81 a barrel.

Both contracts fell earlier in the session after a sharp selloff last week when Brent fell 12 percent to below $38 a barrel – exiting its five-month trading range.

But reports that Russia is considering delaying its planned loosening of the taps in January helped lift prices later in the session on Monday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, have cut output by about 7.7 million bpd to prop up sliding oil prices.

Goldman analysts forecast a delay in plans to ramp up output in January. The next OPEC+ meeting kicks off on November 30.

Oil markets have been under pressure in recent days as business and travel-sapping lockdowns return to Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Also adding pressure on prices, Libya substantially upped its oil production in recent days.

“With plenty to worry about in the oil market – lockdowns, Libya, Iran, shale resilience – such a move lower is not surprising,” Goldman Sachs crude analysts wrote in a Sunday note. “This is consistent with our ‘patient bulls’ view that the second stage of the market rebalancing – the ‘cyclical recovery’ – would take time [and] require patience.”

A Rystad Energy analysis expects Libya’s crude oil output to average approximately 750,000 bpd in November and climb to 1 million bpd in February 2021

Healthy readings on global factory activity also helped buoy oil prices on Monday.

Japan’s export orders saw a boost and China’s factory activity rose to its highest level in nearly 10 years in October. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index also increased more than expected in October with spikes in production, new orders, and employment components.

Source – https://www.aljazeera.com/